University of Oxford · Department of Economics

Maiwand Nangyal

DPhil Candidate in Economics at the University of Oxford

Development Economics Economic History Political Economy Econometrics Machine Learning

Opium & conflict, 1994

● Poppy cultivation● Conflict events

From The Game of Thorns, a working paper I am currently developing.

Illustrative, not data
Maiwand Nangyal

Education

DPhil Economics University of Oxford (in progress) MSc Economic and Social History University of Oxford MPhil Economics University of Cambridge BSc (Hons) Economics University of Exeter

Experience

AHRC International Placement Scheme Fellow Library of Congress (forthcoming, 2027) Advisor Data for Afghanistan Intern (STT) World Bank Group Economist, UK Civil Service Department for Work and Pensions

Welcome. I'm Maiwand Nangyal, an ESRC-funded DPhil Candidate in Economics at the University of Oxford and a member of Wolfson College.

My research asks how colonial institutions shaped long-run development in South Asia, and what that means for development policy now. I trace the economic legacy of British administrative policy in western British India, exploiting variation in colonial governance across regions to identify why development outcomes diverged. The work sits at the intersection of development economics, economic history and political economy, and applies modern econometrics and machine learning to questions of state capacity, institutional design and the roots of regional inequality.

I am supervised by Professor Stephen Broadberry and Dr Eric Chaney.

Alongside my doctoral work, I am an Advisor at Data for Afghanistan, a platform producing data and visualisations for empirical research on one of the world's most data-scarce and conflict-affected countries. I also have a growing interest in impact evaluation and measurement, shaped by my work with the Outcome Measurement Unit at the World Bank Group on sustainable development financing.

Views expressed here are solely my own and do not represent any institution I'm currently affiliated with or have been affiliated with in the past.

Research

Research

Working Papers

The Game of Thorns: Opium Cultivation and Conflict in Afghanistan, 1994–2021.

Under Development

DPhil Research Chapters

Chapter 1: The Fate of Koh-i-Noor: Analysing the Economic Impact of British Colonial Policies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, 1901–2023

In Progress

Chapter 2

To be confirmed

Chapter 3

To be confirmed

Current Data Projects

Data for Afghanistan

Advisor (Feb 2025 – Present): Providing technical advice on a volunteer basis to support the enterprise, working with Dr Ahmad Zia Wahdat to compile datasets and visualisations on Afghanistan for empirical research.
Website: dataforafghanistan.org

Presentations

Oxford Political Economy Workshop, Manor Road Building (06/2026)

Presented ‘The Game of Thorns: Opium Cultivation and Conflict in Afghanistan, 1994–2021’ to an audience including Dr Eric Chaney and Professor Jean-Paul Carvalho (Associate Editor, Quarterly Journal of Economics).

Oxford Graduate Seminar in Economic and Social History, Nuffield College (11/2025)

Presented DPhil Chapter 1 research, receiving feedback from faculty and graduate students across Economic and Social History and Economics.

32nd Annual Graduate Workshop, Nuffield College (04/2024)

Presented MSc dissertation research to an audience including Professor Sheilagh Ogilvie and Professor Joel Mokyr (joint 2025 Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences), incorporating their feedback into the final dissertation.

Data

Data

Regions of Focus

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the former Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Balochistan are the focus of my PhD; Afghanistan is the focus of my working paper outside the PhD. Hover over the map to see each district and tribal agency.

Afghanistan: Opium and Conflict by District

Interactive maps from The Game of Thorns, showing average annual values: opium cultivation for 2002–2020 and terrorist incidents for 1994–2020 (the terrorism data end in 2020). Hover over a district to see its band.

Global Attention on Afghanistan, 2017–2026

How much the world looked at Afghanistan before, during and after August 2021, measured by Wikipedia views and online news coverage. Switch to the 2021 view to follow the year day by day.

Night-Time Light, 2012–2025

Satellite images of light at night are a common proxy for economic activity where statistics are scarce. After August 2021, Afghanistan dimmed while the regions across the border brightened. Press play or drag the slider to move through the years, and switch to ‘Change since 2020’ to see which districts grew brighter or dimmer.

Earthquakes Across the Frontier, Since 1902

Every earthquake of magnitude 4 or more in the USGS catalogue for Afghanistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, former FATA and Balochistan, updated daily. Nearly six in ten strike deep beneath the Hindu Kush; shallow ones, such as Awaran in 2013, shake the ground hardest. Press play or drag the slider to move through the years, and switch to ‘Magnitude 5 and above’ to compare decades fairly, since smaller earthquakes were only recorded from 1973.

Afghan Refugees and Returns, 1979–2025

Afghans living abroad under UNHCR’s mandate, by host country, and the refugees recorded as returning each year. Close to two million returned in 2025, the most since 2002, most of them from Iran. Use the tabs to switch between the two views.

The Afghani and the Pakistani Rupee

The afghani and the Pakistani rupee against the US dollar and pound sterling, and against each other, from 2000 to today. Choose a currency and what to compare it against, and use the tabs to switch between the full history and the last 30 days.

Inflation in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Consumer price inflation every year since 1960 for Pakistan and since 2003 for Afghanistan, and month by month this year, updated automatically. Prices in Afghanistan fell in 2023 and 2024, while Pakistan's inflation reached 30.8% in 2023, its highest since at least 1960.

Curriculum Vitae

Curriculum Vitae

Download my latest CV. My full academic CV will be made publicly available when I am a Job Market Candidate. For the full version prior to that, please contact me at mn529@cantab.ac.uk.

Teaching

Teaching

Courses Taught

Level: MSc/MPhil (Postgraduate)

Format: Eight 2-hour classes

Office Hours: Mondays, 5–6pm, Seminar Room F, Manor Road Building

Course Structure

Week Content
1Introduction to Economics
2–3Microeconomics
4Trade and Development
5–6Macroeconomics
7Applied Econometrics
8Final Presentations (10 minutes each)

Week 8 Final Presentation

Choose a topic you are interested in and apply the methods and concepts discussed in this course. You may base it on any (empirical) paper you have read or on your own work.

Please send me your presentation in PDF or PowerPoint format to maiwand.nangyal@economics.ox.ac.uk by the start of the Week 8 class.

Course Materials

Access lecture slides and resources
Password will be provided via email and in class to enrolled students.

Recommended Textbooks (Optional)¹

Topic Textbook
Microeconomics Microeconomics (5th Edition)
by David A. Besanko and Ronald R. Braeutigam
Trade International Economics: Theory and Policy (11th Edition)
by Paul R. Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld and Marc J. Melitz
Macroeconomics Macroeconomics (5th Edition)
by Stephen D. Williamson
Macroeconomics Advanced Macroeconomics (5th Edition)²
by David Romer
Applied Econometrics Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion
by Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke

¹ Any edition is acceptable for all textbooks listed above.

² This is a much more advanced book, suitable for those with some intermediate macroeconomics training or those interested in advanced macro theory and models.

Suggested Readings

Week Reading Access
1 Margo, R. A. (2018). "The Integration of Economic History into Economics"
Cliometrica, 12(3), 377–406.
DOI: 10.1007/s11698-018-0170-8 		SOLO
2 Gale, D., & Shapley, L. S. (1962). "College Admissions and the Stability of Marriage"
The American Mathematical Monthly, 69(1), 9–15.
Original article. DOI: 10.1080/00029890.1962.11989827
2013 reprint: The American Mathematical Monthly, 120(5), 386–391. 		SOLO
3 Roth, A. E., Sönmez, T., & Ünver, M. U. (2004). "Kidney Exchange"
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(2), 457–488.
DOI: 10.1162/0033553041382157 		SOLO
4 Autor, D., Dorn, D., & Hanson, G. H. (2013). "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States"
American Economic Review, 103(6), 2121–2168.
DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.6.2121 		SOLO
5 Chetty, R., Grusky, D., Hell, M., Hendren, N., Manduca, R., & Narang, J. (2017). "The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility Since 1940"
Science, 356(6336), 398–406.
DOI: 10.1126/science.aal4617 		SOLO
6 Broadberry, S., & Wallis, J. (2025). "Growing, Shrinking, and Long-Run Economic Performance: Historical Perspectives on Economic Development"
Journal of Economic History, 85(2), 505–540.
DOI: 10.1017/S0022050725000105 		Open Access
7 Dell, M. (2010). "The Persistent Effects of Peru's Mining Mita"
Econometrica, 78(6), 1863–1903.
DOI: 10.3982/ECTA8121 		SOLO
Chaney, E. (2013). "Revolt on the Nile: Economic Shocks, Religion, and Political Power"
Econometrica, 81(5), 2033–2053.
DOI: 10.3982/ECTA10233 		SOLO
Bau, N. (2021). "Can Policy Change Culture? Government Pension Plans and Traditional Kinship Practices"
American Economic Review, 111(6), 1880–1917.
DOI: 10.1257/aer.20190098 		SOLO
8 N/A - Class Presentations -

Level: Undergraduate Third Year (PPE, E&M, H&E, RVS (Visiting))

Format: Eight 90-minute tutorials in groups of four, Weeks 2–8 (two tutorials in Week 8)

Lecturers: Dr Thiago Scarelli and Dr Sanjay Jain

Location: Oriel College (Tuesdays); Monday location to be confirmed

Course Structure

Tutorials introduce key areas of development economics and explore major economic policy issues facing low- and middle-income countries. Tutorials run one week behind the lectures, giving students time to work through the readings.

Tutorial Week Topic
12Measuring Development; Poverty and Inequality
23Nutrition and Health
34Growth, Structural Change, and Underdevelopment as Coordination Failure
45International Trade and Developing Countries
56Financing Development: International Capital Flows, and Domestic Credit Markets
67Education
78Labour and Migration
88 (second session)Institutions, and Political Economy

Weekly Essays

Each week, students choose one question from the list of suggested essays and write a 1,500-word essay, coming to the tutorial ready to give a brief presentation (5–7 minutes) on it. Students are encouraged to coordinate with their tutorial partners and split the essay topics between them, so that each group covers as much ground as possible. Tutorials 2, 6 and 7 also include a problem question, and submissions for those weeks should include both the answer to the problem question and the essay.

Essays are uploaded as PDFs to each group's OneDrive folder by 12:00 noon on the Saturday before Monday tutorials, and by 12:00 noon on the Sunday before Tuesday tutorials. Students have access to their peers' essays and are expected to read them and prepare feedback and questions for each other in advance, so that the tutorials can be an open discussion of ideas.

Assessment for Visiting Students

Visiting students prepare a two-page research proposal and give a 20-minute presentation on it (15 minutes plus 5 minutes for questions) in the final tutorial. The research proposal is optional for Oxford students, who are assessed by the Finals examination in Trinity Term 2027.

Course Materials

Access tutorial details and resources
Password will be provided via email to enrolled students.

Level: MSc/MPhil (Postgraduate)

Format: Eight 2-hour classes

Office Hours: Mondays, 5–6pm, Seminar Room F (Weeks 1–3 and 5–8) and Seminar Room E (Week 4), Manor Road Building

Course Structure

Week Content
1Introduction to Economics
2–3Microeconomics
4Trade and Development
5–6Macroeconomics
7Applied Econometrics
8Final Presentations (10 minutes each)

Week 8 Final Presentation

Choose a topic you are interested in and apply the methods and concepts discussed in this course. You may base it on any (empirical) paper you have read or on your own work.

Please send me your presentation in PDF or PowerPoint format to maiwand.nangyal@economics.ox.ac.uk by the start of the Week 8 class.

Course Materials

Access lecture slides and resources
Password will be provided via email and in class to enrolled students.

Recommended Textbooks (Optional)¹

Topic Textbook
Microeconomics Microeconomics (5th Edition)
by David A. Besanko and Ronald R. Braeutigam
Trade International Economics: Theory and Policy (11th Edition)
by Paul R. Krugman, Maurice Obstfeld and Marc J. Melitz
Macroeconomics Macroeconomics (5th Edition)
by Stephen D. Williamson
Macroeconomics Advanced Macroeconomics (5th Edition)²
by David Romer
Applied Econometrics Mostly Harmless Econometrics: An Empiricist's Companion
by Joshua D. Angrist & Jörn-Steffen Pischke

¹ Any edition is acceptable for all textbooks listed above.

² This is a much more advanced book, suitable for those with some intermediate macroeconomics training or those interested in advanced macro theory and models.

Suggested Readings

Week Reading Access
1 Margo, R. A. (2018). "The Integration of Economic History into Economics"
Cliometrica, 12(3), 377–406.
DOI: 10.1007/s11698-018-0170-8 		SOLO
2 Gale, D., & Shapley, L. S. (1962). "College Admissions and the Stability of Marriage"
The American Mathematical Monthly, 69(1), 9–15.
Original article. DOI: 10.1080/00029890.1962.11989827
2013 reprint: The American Mathematical Monthly, 120(5), 386–391. 		SOLO
3 Roth, A. E., Sönmez, T., & Ünver, M. U. (2004). "Kidney Exchange"
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 119(2), 457–488.
DOI: 10.1162/0033553041382157 		SOLO
4 Autor, D., Dorn, D., & Hanson, G. H. (2013). "The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States"
American Economic Review, 103(6), 2121–2168.
DOI: 10.1257/aer.103.6.2121 		SOLO
5 Chetty, R., Grusky, D., Hell, M., Hendren, N., Manduca, R., & Narang, J. (2017). "The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility Since 1940"
Science, 356(6336), 398–406.
DOI: 10.1126/science.aal4617 		SOLO
6 Broadberry, S., & Wallis, J. (2025). "Growing, Shrinking, and Long-Run Economic Performance: Historical Perspectives on Economic Development"
Journal of Economic History, 85(2), 505–540.
DOI: 10.1017/S0022050725000105 		Open Access
7 Dell, M. (2010). "The Persistent Effects of Peru's Mining Mita"
Econometrica, 78(6), 1863–1903.
DOI: 10.3982/ECTA8121 		SOLO
Chaney, E. (2013). "Revolt on the Nile: Economic Shocks, Religion, and Political Power"
Econometrica, 81(5), 2033–2053.
DOI: 10.3982/ECTA10233 		SOLO
Bau, N. (2021). "Can Policy Change Culture? Government Pension Plans and Traditional Kinship Practices"
American Economic Review, 111(6), 1880–1917.
DOI: 10.1257/aer.20190098 		SOLO
8 N/A - Class Presentations -

Other Seminar Groups

After the first class, a student enquired about other research groups that they could also join. As Professor Schenk explained in the Week 0 induction meeting, the weekly Economic and Social History seminars (the Tuesday Research Seminar and the Wednesday Graduate Seminar) are compulsory for all of you, so please prioritise those. The groups below are additional, optional suggestions: seminar groups whose events I occasionally attend or whose mailing lists I am on.

Group How to Join
Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Email csae-external-subscribe@maillist.ox.ac.uk with the subject line “Yes Email Me”
Oxford Department of International Development (ODID) Email sympa@maillist.ox.ac.uk with the subject line “subscribe odid-events”
Political Economy Research Group
Department of Economics		 Seminar on Wednesdays at 11am, Department of Economics. Email events@economics.ox.ac.uk to be added to the seminar mailing list.
Machine Learning & Economics Reading Group
Department of Economics		 Open to all, in person or via Zoom. Convenor: Professor Maximilian Kasy.
Schedule and Zoom link
Oxford Centre for Global History Email oxford-centre-for-global-history-subscribe@maillist.ox.ac.uk
St Antony’s Asian Studies Centre Sign up via the newsletter form (Weekly Round-Up, East Asia, South Asia and Southeast Asia lists)
Oxford Centre for Islamic Studies Use the contact form and select “Newsletter / Mailing list”.
Hosting Professor Tim Besley this term; hosted Professor Sheilagh Ogilvie in Hilary 2026.

Contact

Contact

Personal Email
mn529@cantab.ac.uk
Academic Email
maiwand.nangyal@economics.ox.ac.uk
College
Wolfson College, University of Oxford
Department
Department of Economics, University of Oxford

Department Address Department of Economics
University of Oxford
Manor Road Building
Manor Road
Oxford
OX1 3UQ
United Kingdom

Postal Correspondence Address Wolfson College
Linton Road
Oxford
OX2 6UD
United Kingdom

Supervisors

Academic Profiles

ميوند ننګيال

د آکسفورډ پوهنتون د اقتصاد د دوکتورا نوماند

ميوند ننګيال

ښه راغلاست! زه ميوند ننګيال يم، د آکسفورډ پوهنتون د اقتصاد د دوکتورا نوماند، چې د ESRC له خوا تمويل شوی يم. خوشاله او وياړمن يم چې د نړۍ د ګډ غوره پوهنتون (کیمبریج سره يوځای 😊) زده کوونکی يم.

زما د دوکتورا تیزس دا څېري چې استعماري بنسټونو د سویلي آسیا د اوږدمهاله پرمختګ په بهیر کې کومه ونډه درلوده - د پرمختیایي اقتصاد، اقتصادي تاریخ او سیاسي اقتصاد سره د عصري اقتصادي Applied Econometrics او ماشیني زده کړې په پیوستون او همغږي. په لویدیځ برتانوي هند کې د برتانوي اداري پالیسیو اوږدمهاله اقتصادي میراث له تعقیبولو - په استعماري حکومتولۍ کې د سیمه ییز توپیر څخه په ګټه اخیستو ترڅو د اوږدمهاله پرمختیایي پایلو توپیرونه وپیژني - کوم چې نن سبا د دولتي وړتیا، اداري جوړښت او پرمختیایي پالیسۍ د پوهیدو لپاره مستقیم اغیزې لري.

زه د پروفیسر سټیفن براډبیري او ډاکټر ایریک چیني په لارښونه خپل دوکتورا مخکې بیایم او د ولفسن کالج غړی يم. د خپلې دوکتورا تر څنګ د افغانستان ډاټا سره سلاکاري هم پر مخ وړم - یوه داسې پلیټفارم چې د افغانستان (د نړۍ د ترټولو ډاټا کمو هیوادونو څخه یو) د اقتصادي څېړنو لپاره لوړ کیفیتي ډاټا او لیدونه چمتو کوي.

ښکاره شوي نظرونه زما خپل دي او د هیڅ هغه بنسټ استازیتوب نه کوي چې ما اوس یا پخوا ورسره اړیکه درلوده.